Copenhagen Games preview
Four weeks after IEM6 World Championship almost all the best teams in the world are traveling to Copenhagen for the next big event of the year - Copenhagen Games 2012.
Copenhagen Games features an interesting tournament format this year with eight groups of four in a best-of-three format taking up almost the entire first day of the event, as only the first round of upper bracket is played. Day two features a sixteen team double elimination bracket, where the upper bracket is played in best-of-three format once again, but lower bracket is best-of-one.
The new format might change the outcome as teams don't simply get knocked out of the tournament when they face a stronger team like in single elimination format, which takes some pressure off the seedings as well. Instead, weaker teams have a better chance at scoring upset wins in the best-of-one format featured in lower bracket.
This preview separates the best invited teams into three categories, continue reading to find out what to expect from your favorite teams in Copenhagen next week.
Favorites
These are the teams I expect to be standing on the podium at the end of the event, although it is possible for one of them to come up short, they are heavy favorites going into this event. They are also my picks to finish top three.
ESC Gaming(kuben, Loord, neo, pasha, TaZ)
The Poles have won their last two tournaments which were both majors as well, WCG and IEM WC. To me it seems like they are currently a level above others along with Natus Vincere, although if you look at scores in their matchups against SK Gaming you can tell the Swedes aren't far behind. However, when you look at all the times SK Gaming has crumbled against Filip "neo" Kubski's squad, you have to start wondering if it's all just luck in close games, or if they might just have the Swedes' numbers.ESC Gaming looks very solid overall no matter how you look at them; Wiktor "TaZ" Wojtas has seemingly elevated his level of play in the last six months, Kubski is playing at his usual top notch level and Jarosław "pasha" Jarząbkowski had his big rounds at IEM. As with every team, the final two members aren't as flashy as the former three, but both of them have also had big matches and most importantly, they play their parts extremely well in ESC Gaming. Not everyone can or needs to be a super star, and from the outside looking in, it seems like ESC knows that very well. They all play to their strengths, and although other teams might have more skill than them, they continuously top them in close series and end up on top.
I think ESC has the highest chance out of the three teams I classified as "favorites" of getting upset versus teams in the lower categories (although not trailed by much by Natus Vincere), but due to the format of Copenhagen Games being best-of-three all the way until you lose a set, you can expect the Polish side to bring their A game and lock a spot in the final four. I think they will beat everyone below them and SK Gaming (should they face each other), but a matchup against the Ukrainians will always be a toss up for them.
Will the Poles' joy continue in Copenhagen?
Natus Vincere(ceh9, Edward, markeloff, starix, Zeus)
Natus Vincere come into this event as the clear second best team in the world in my opinion, although only by the slightest margins as they missed WCG and can't therefore be judged too much by their lack of a placing in Busan. Although they had an arguably much easier route to their second place finish in Hannover than ESC did on their way to the grand final, they still took care of all the lower level teams with relative ease and should have been able to close out SK Gaming in the group stage if it wasn't for constant nagging and arguing within the team.The switch to having Sergey "starix" Ischuk call the shots as the new in-game leader is clearly working out for Na`Vi, although Jakub "kuben" Gurczynski criticized his calling in a recent interview and said it's obvious where Ischuk likes to fall back on when things do not work. Natus Vincere's lineup has always complemented each other very well, as they have very defined roles within the team that seem to work in-game. Although I still disagree with Yegor "markeloff" Markelov using the AWP less with Ischuk buying it more often these days, the 24-year-old super star has proven to be a world class player with rifles as well, if anyone ever doubted it. Danilo "Zeus" Teslenko has also greatly improved his individual play ever since he stopped calling.
As I mentioned in ESC's preview, I think Natus Vincere could normally fall short against a lower level team, but luckily for them both group stage and the upper bracket are in best-of-three format, which takes a lot of pressure off the Ukrainians who are known to have trouble in group stages before shaping up for the best-of-threes. I don't see anyone but ESC or SK taking Markelov's team out in a best-of-three, but should either one do it, Na`Vi could fall outside of the podium in the best-of-one lower bracket, where they fell against a much weaker ESC.se team at GameGune last summer after an upper bracket defeat to SK Gaming on de_nuke.
ZeroGravity's team won't be happy with another second place finish
SK Gaming(f0rest, face, GeT_RiGhT, RobbaN, trace)
SK Gaming came into IEM6 WC with tons of expectations from fans after the addition of Martin "trace" Heldt, but failed against ESC in semi-finals after twelve consecutive round wins on de_nuke and then ended the tournament by losing the third place decider to Lions. This once again goes to show that while individual skill is always an asset, it alone doesn't make a great team. It would be impossible to make an argument at this point that there's a more skilled team out there than SK Gaming and ESC is actually the lowest skilled team out of the top three, but they still seem to consistently have SK's numbers as seen at e-Stars, WCG and IEM.Since IEM SK missed TECHLABS Cup final against Na`Vi, either because they didn't want to go or because they had problems with visas. Regardless, we haven't seen SK playing as a team since then but you can expect them to be better prepared by now. More preparation won't fix the underlying issue which causes SK to lose matches - their weak terrorist sides. Ever since they replaced Marcus "Delpan" Larsson they've only had one, maybe two aggressive terrorist side players (Patrik "f0rest" Lindberg and Robert "RobbaN" Dahlström) and their play style clearly depends a little too much on their star players hitting their shots to consistently score wins over ESC or Na`Vi.
Personally I don't think those problems will be fixed with more practice. That is not to say SK can't or won't win, because their CT sides are so good it might be enough to carry them on to wins, but I think overall they are very slightly below ESC Gaming and Natus Vincere as of now. I don't think SK had ever lost against a weaker team until the Lions loss at IEM, and regardless of it only being a third place decider, it still really surprised me especially seeing as it's another Swedish team that Lindberg & co are used to running over easily. SK Gaming will most likely end up on the podium, but I think both ESC and Na`Vi are slight favorites against them, and they could get upset by a team like Lions in the lower bracket.
Can SK live up to the post-trace addition hype or will they have to travel home disappointed again?
Dark horses
This is the group of teams that's most likely to upset one of the "favorites" at the event and could see one of them ending up in top three, but it's unlikely any of them will be able to fight for a win. I expect these teams to round up the top six.
It's a little sad Lions got dropped from their comfortable sponsorship after their third place finish at IEM6 WC which is easily the team's second best placing in its history. The problem I see with Lemondogs is they are very good at executing captain Björn "threat" Pers' game, but I'm not sure which way they can grow from there. They have now upset each of the favorites in best-of-three format so while theoretically it's plausible they could end up on the podium, I think they will face one of the three somewhat early in the upper bracket and then be forced to fight against slightly worse teams in the lower bracket.
I don't see Lemondogs as a team who is incapable of losing against seemingly weaker opposition, and the best-of-one format will probably randomize some lower bracket results at Copenhagen Games. I wouldn't be surprised if Lemondogs fell victim to it, but they are still the fourth best team there going into the event.
Lemondogs are hoping to repeat their performance from IEM6 WC
WinFakt (allu, aslak, BASiC, dRiim, H^N)
Prediction written by:Marc "Nix0n" Winther Kristensen
WinFakt will be in Copenhagen without their captain Tomi "lurppis" Kovanen, which means Kimmo "BASiC" Fagerholm will be the team's leader this weekend. Fagerholm led Online Kingdom last year at the Danish event, which was the first time for him at a LAN event.
Surely the Finns will have to mix it up a bit, which could pay off, but certainly also backfire. I would under no circumstances consider them on the same page as a mix team, but given the fact that the team won't be having the framework of Kovanen, I feel it may be the cornerstone in a collapsing house of cards. Then again, how bad could it get? The team got placed in the high seeding layer, surely a first place in whatever group they end up in is doable. It's when the playoffs kick in I feel the Finns will be in trouble. I could see them moving to the upper-bracket semis, but only if they get drawn up against Alternate or Xapso in the first round.
Word has it the players have been playing a lot individually, even surpassing the hours put in preparing for the IEM6 World Championship. Taking this in consideration with what I've mentioned above, I feel safe to say they will end up in top eight, but climbing much further seems quite unthinkable and at the same time, I could see them failing to reach top eight, only based on the absence of their leader Kovanen.
aslak can make a difference for WinFakt, but he will have to improve on his IEM6 WC form
While every fan seems to think Patrik "cArn" Sättermon's replacement, Finn "karrigan" Andersen is a great addition to fnatic, I see them as a similar team to SK now. They lack in leadership, have a good amount of skill but it's distributed in an awkward way where all five of their players are used to being fraggers in their previous teams, whereas now some of them are going to be forced to do the boring roles in strats which while it might work in the short term, probably won't be great after a while.
I think fnatic won't do nearly as well without Sättermon as people expect them to do with Andersen. I could even see them losing against a team like Xapso who are clearly superior strategically and I think Lemondogs must be considered a favorite against them now. Overall I think they will finish in the top six, but I don't think they stand a chance against the top three.
Can Xizt replace cArn as a leader or will fnatic face more problems than before?
Underdogs
Underdogs are teams I consider good enough to possibly cause an upset on the "dark horses" and play competitive matches against anyone at the event, but who don't have much chances of ending up in the top four. In the end, these teams should finish within the top twelve.
Xapso (ArcadioN, coloN, turkizh, zanoj, Xyp9x)
People have been seemingly making a big deal out of Xapso ever since Morten "coloN" Johansen was accused of cheating in a ClanBase Nations Cup match. I personally think it has been blown out of proportions (without having seen the clip), as regardless of Johansen actually cheating it isn't a big deal. If he did, they won a match without much merit, and if not, he's still the same player on LAN.
Either way, Xapso will be able to take down teams thanks to their leader Timm "ArcadioN" Henriken, but they will be massively outskilled against teams in the higher categories and their inexperienced players will probably not be able to put up big numbers which would let them upset them. I can see Xapso beating anyone else in "underdogs" comfortably, but I don't see them taking down anyone from a category above them. Good enough to place top eight, but not much more.
Will ArcadioN surprise the scene at another Danish event as with Full Gaming?
Anexis' claim to fame was mTw dying which let them become the best team in Denmark. That hasn't helped much though, as the only time the Danes have advanced from the initial group stage since Michael "Friis" Jørgensen's departure was DreamHack Winter where they had Martin "trace" Heldt as a stand-in. Despite multiple upset wins over teams considered better than them, Anexis have been unable to cause any real damage at international events.
Unfortunately for them, after mTw disbanded, Timm "ArcadioN" Henriksen created a new team, Xapso, which has now surpassed them as the best Danish team after a victory at DEL finals last weekend. Anexis can once again upset, but there is hardly any chance of them making the final four, regardless of having a good day or causing more than one upset in the lower bracket, where the best-of-one format will be their biggest hope for Copenhagen Games.
Can BERRY's team finally make a difference on home soil?
Alternate (approx, Kapio, Tixo, Troubley, Roman R.)
Alternate hasn't impressed us in a long time despite of boasting some of the best known German players in the game's history. Their most recent showing was a big loss against an already dead mousesports team featuring the now-fnatic member Finn "karrigan" Andersen. Alternate also stands a chance at upsetting one of the dark horses due to veterans such as Navid "Kapio" Javadi and Manuel "Tixo" Makohl, but they're much more likely to finish in the 7-12th region, where the final placing will likely be mostly decided by their bracket.
Will we see Kapio in his old mouz form?
Copenhagen Wolves is an interesting combination of by now long retired Danish players including two members of the 2008 mTw lineup and Andreas "KK" Andreassen from The Titans. While the players are clearly out of shape and most likely won't put much into preparing for this event, it will be fun for spectators to see some of the older players come back if only for an event.
If Wolves' players have a good level of individual play they can make the top eight to twelve region, but considering their inactivity, they might get knocked out even earlier. It all depends how much effort these guys put in, as Muhamed "MJE" Eid and Jonas "whimp" Svendsen just might have another ace up their sleeve.
Fans will get to watch whimp compete in CS once more
MoD-eSport isn't very well known within Europe but they have a roster of young hungry players who put in a lot of hours and had a solid match against WinFakt at LanTrek back in January. While their team isn't likely to put up much of a fight against teams I consider "favorites" or "dark horses", I think they are going to be a lot better against other "underdogs" than many might consider. I think the BYOC format will help them get used to the computers and a new environment, and they will be able to put in as much warmup time as they might ever like to.
Another team who will struggle in best-of-threes but luckily has a medium seed to make it to upper bracket regardless, and can upset similar level teams in lower bracket's best-of-one format.
How do you think these teams will fare at Copenhagen Games 2012? Do you disagree with the preview? Who will end up winning? Leave a comment with your thoughts below.
HLTV.org will be on-site to provide you with full coverage of Copenhagen Games 2012 on April 4-8. The local qualification tournament will run on Thursday April 5, with all the teams mentioned here beginning their campaign on Friday, April 6.
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